KT/November 23, 2009

Chances of the ethnic armed groups forming an effective alliance are for the moment a distant dream. One of the largest armed opposition groups, the Karen National Union, say there are many obstacles to putting in place a competitive fighting alliance. KNU spokesman Saw Hla Ngwe said.

"It is difficult to form an alliance. Communication is a problem, coordinating cooperation is a problem, cross-border travel to help each other is a problem. We already have an alliance, but it is difficult to join together and be stronger when we fight."

The existing ethnic armed group alliance is made up of six groups: Karen (KNU), Karenni (KNPP), Shan (SSA), Chin (CNF), Kachin (KIO) and Arakan (ALP).

In spite of all the difficulties outlined by the KNU's Hla Ngwe, when ethnic armies do unite, they do at least have a fighting chance of repelling the much stronger Burmese army. On October 30 this year, KNLA and KNPP soldiers fought together to beat the Burmese army, killing nine and injuring four soldiers.

According KNPP spokesperson, Khu Oo Reh, an alliance is desirable, but says. "Cooperation for a long-term alliance depends on each groups decision and strategies. If the alliance dream does not come true, we will each choose our own way."

Meanwhile, the Burmese regime is going full-steam ahead with its plans to disarm ethnic ceasefire groups and put in place its Border Defence Force before the 2010 national elections. This means ceasefire groups will be under the control of the Burmese army. It appears the ceasefire and non-ceasefire groups of Burma are being outmaneuvered.

An international respected  military expert, Professor Desmond Ball of Australia's National University Strategic and Defence Studies Centre has been reported as saying that if the ethnic groups of Burma do not form an effective alliance thy will be toppled one-by-one. It is in their self-interest to do so before it is too late.